Ukraine has denied Russia a victory for four weeks. A grim new phase could be coming

On Monday, after intense fighting, Ukrainian forces regained control of Makariv, a town west of Kyiv that had been battered by Russian airstrikes.

It’s tempting to view this small victory for Ukrainian forces as a shift of momentum in the battle for Kyiv: In better times, this suburb would be only an hour’s drive to Khreshchatyk, the capital’s central boulevard.

Kyiv once appeared to be the primary objective of what the Kremlin must have envisioned as a swift regime-change operation. The capital has been rocked by explosions in recent days, but it is far from encircled.

On the Azov Sea, the besieged southeastern city of Mariupol – despite being surrounded and mercilessly pummeled, block by block, by Russian firepower – still eludes Russian control. Its defenders rejected an ultimatum to surrender by Monday morning, thwarting a Russian effort to finalize a land bridge linking Crimea with the separatist republics of the eastern Donbas region.

A destroyed armored personnel carrier is seen in Makariv on March 4.

Nearly a month after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has perceptibly shifted its messaging. The Russian military’s advances have been stymied, the Ukrainians say, forcing a shift in Russian tactics.

“Due to the lack of success of the ground phase of the operation, the enemy continues to actively launch missile and bomb strikes on important military and civilian infrastructure using operational and tactical aircraft, high-precision missile weapons and indiscriminate munitions,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement Tuesday.

There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the Russians are taking more of a standoff approach, launching salvos of missiles from outside of Ukrainian airspace.

This satellite image shows a damaged theater in Mariupol, Ukraine, which was bombed March 16, 2022.

Related article They thought they would be safe in the theater. Then it was bombed

In a statement released Sunday, Russia’s defense ministry said warships in the Caspian sea launched Kalibr cruise missiles and aircraft launched Kinzhal hypersonic missile systems from the airspace over Crimea. Those missiles targeted what the Russians described as a large storage base for fuels and lubricants of the Ukrainian military near the settlement of Kostyantynivka, in the southern Mykolaiv region.

Separately, the Russian military said Kalibr cruise missiles were fired from the Black Sea, targeting a workshop for the repair of Ukrainian armored vehicles. Russian precision missiles also targeted what Russia described as a Ukrainian military training center near the settlement of Ovruch, in the northern Zhytomyr region.

Cars burn after a Russian military strike in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on October 10. At least 19 people were killed and more than 100 injured in Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on Monday as Moscow targeted critical energy infrastructure.

A fireman helps an injured civilian after several explosions hit the Shevchenkivskyi district of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on October 10.

Firefighters conduct work on a damaged building after a Russian missile attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on October 10.

A huge blast severely damaged the only bridge connecting annexed Crimea to the Russian mainland on October 8. At least three people were killed in the explosion, which caused parts of Europe's longest bridge to collapse, according to Russian officials.

Ukrainian soldiers ride on an armored vehicle near the recently retaken town of Lyman in Donetsk region on October 6, as the Ukrainian military continues to advance into several of the areas Russia now claims as its own.

Ukrainian firefighters attend to the site of a missile strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on October 6.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire a BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher towards Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on October 4.

Ukrainian servicemen carry a body bag at the site of a missile strike on a convoy of civilian cars that killed at least 30 people near Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on September 30.

Head of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin, left, and Secretary of the United Russia Party's General Council Andrey Turchak attend a news conference on preliminary results of a referendum on the joining of the DPR to Russia, in Donetsk, Ukraine, on September 27.

Anton Krasyvyi rows passengers across the Siverskyi-Donets river in front of a destroyed bridge, so they can visit relatives in Staryi-Saltiv, Ukraine, on September 27.

People wait for food aid distributed by the local branch of Caritas Internationalis, a Catholic charity organisation, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 27.

A man glues a referendum poster reading "Yes" in Berdyansk, Ukraine, on September 26. Russia is attempting to annex up to 18% of Ukrainian territory, with President Vladimir Putin expected to host a ceremony in the Kremlin to declare four occupied Ukrainian territories part of Russia.

Forensic technicians operate at the site of a mass grave in a forest on the outskirts of Izyum, eastern Ukraine on September 18. Ukrainian authorities discovered hundreds of graves outside the formerly Russian-occupied city.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters put out a fire after a Russian rocket attack hit an electric power station in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 11.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaks to the press at his hotel before leaving to inspect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on September 1.

Graves of fallen soldiers in Lychakiv Cemetery, Lviv, as Ukrainians celebrate Independence Day, and mark the six month anniversary of the Russian invasion, on August 24.

Rockets launched from the Belgorod region in Russia are seen at dawn in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on August 15.

Valentyna Kondratieva, 75, left, is comforted by a neighbor as they stand outside her damaged home, in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on August 13, after a rocket attack.

The bulk carrier NAVI STAR, transporting a cargo of corn, is seen leaving port of Odesa, Ukraine, on August 5.

A young girl holds her dog as an evacuation train departs from Pokrovsk, eastern Ukraine, on August 2.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters attend to a fire at an oil depot in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, on August 2.

A firefighter extinguishes a burning hospital building hit by a Russian missile strike in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, on August 1.

Russian tanks near the settlement of Olenivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on July 29.

Students at a military school write letters to Ukrainian servicemen during a lesson in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 27.

Firefighters rest as their colleagues remove debris during the search for bodies at the Central House of Culture, in Chuhuiv, Ukraine, after an air strike on July 25.

A man holds the hand of his 13 year-old son, killed by a Russian military strike, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 20.

Ukrainian service members fire a shell from a towed howitzer FH-70 at the front line in the Donbas region, Ukraine, on July 18.

Firefighters and members of a rescue team clear the scene after a building was shelled in Chasiv Yar, eastern Ukraine, on July 10. At least 29 people have been confirmed dead.

Local residents look on as smoke rises after shelling in Donetsk, Ukraine, on July 7.

A wounded woman is transported to an ambulance in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on July 7.

A farmer drives a combine harvester past a crater suspected to be caused by an air strike near Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on July 7.

A Ukrainian soldier with the 14th Mechanized Brigade of Prince Roman the Great works in his tank as the unit awaits their next mission on July 1.

An aerial view of rescue workers after a missile attack in the Serhiivka district of Odesa, Ukraine, on July 1.

People attend a funeral ceremony for Ukrainian serviceman Volodymyr Kochetov, 46, in the village of Babyntsi, Ukraine, on June 30.

Firefighters clear rubble at the Amstor shopping mall in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, Ukraine, on June 28.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters work to take away debris at a shopping mall after a rocket attack in Kremenchuk, Ukraine, on June 28.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a working session of G7 leaders via video link from his office in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday June 27.

An apartment building in the Shevchenkivskiy district of Kyiv, Ukraine, is damaged during a Russian airstrike, on June 26. Several explosions rocked the west of the Ukrainian capital in the early hours of Sunday morning, with at least two residential buildings struck, according to Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko.

Ukrainian service members patrol an area in the city of Severodonetsk, Ukraine, on June 20.

People light flares in memory of the Ukrainian activist Roman Ratushnyi during a farewell ceremony at Baikove cemetery, Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 18.

Oleksiy Chernyshov, Ukrainian President Zelensky's special envoy for EU accession, walks with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian PM Mario Draghi past destroyed buildings in Irpin, Ukraine, on June 16.

Young people swing in front of destroyed residential buildings in Borodyanka, Ukraine, on June 15.

A Ukrainian bomb disposal expert looks at an ordnance shell during a mine clearance operation in Solonytsivka, near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on June 15.

Ukrainian servicemen fire a French 155mm CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 15.

A forensic technician inspects a mass grave near the village of Vorzel in the Bucha district near Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 13.

Russian servicemen guard an area of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Ukraine, on June 13.

Local residents walk along an empty street as smoke rises in the background in the town of Lysychansk, Ukraine, on June 10.

A Ukrainian soldier takes cover during heavy fighting at the front line in Severodonetsk, Ukraine, on Wednesday, June 8.

Ukrainian troops fire surface-to-surface rockets from MLRS towards Russian positions at the front line in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 7.

A Ukrainian soldier holds a next generation light anti-tank weapon (NLAW) at a position on the front line near Bakhmut in the Donbas region of Ukraine on June 5.

U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, left, listens to Ukraine's Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktov during a tour of Borodyanka, Ukraine, on June 4.

Local residents examine a destroyed Russian tank outside of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday, May 31. It has now been 100 days since Russia invaded.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, third from left, visits front-line positions during a trip to the Kharkiv region on Sunday, May 29.

Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarin, 21, is sentenced to life in prison by a Ukrainian court in Kyiv on May 23. He was convicted of killing an unarmed civilian. It was the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's invasion.

Buses with Ukrainian servicemen evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant wait near a prison in Olyonivka on May 17. The steel plant was the last holdout in Mariupol, a city that had become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance under relentless Russian bombardment.

Ukrainian servicemen fire mortars toward Russian positions in the east Kharkiv region of Ukraine on May 17.

A woman named Tatyana searches for her husband's grave in the settlement of Staryi Krym, outside Mariupol, on May 15.

Ukrainian service personnel work inside a basement used as a command post in the Kharkiv region on May 15.

Grieving relatives attend the funeral of Pankratov Oleksandr, a Ukrainian military serviceman, in Lviv, Ukraine, on May 14.

Ukrainian people evacuated from Mariupol arrive on buses at a registration and processing area for internally displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on May 8.

Ukrainian serviceman and emergency workers carry the body of a Russian soldier into a refrigerated train in Kharkiv on May 5. The bodies of more than 40 Russian soldiers were being stored in the refrigerated car.

Smoke rises from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol on May 5.

Ukrainian soldiers clear mines at the Antonov Airport in Hostomel, Ukraine, on May 5.

Vehicles are on fire at an oil depot in Makiivka, Ukraine, after missiles struck a facility in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces on May 4.

Natalia Pototska cries next to her grandson Matviy as they arrive at a center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia on May 2.

Pro-Russian troops stand guard next to a bus transporting evacuees near a temporary accommodation center in the Ukrainian village of Bezimenne on May 1.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, center, meets with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as a congressional delegation visited Kyiv on April 30. Pelosi is the most senior US official to meet with Zelensky since Russia invaded Ukraine.

A man stands on the balcony of his apartment after a missile strike damaged a residential building in Ukraine's Donetsk region on April 30.

A woman walks through the site of an explosion in Kyiv on April 29. Russia struck the Ukrainian capital shortly after a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Guterres speaks during his meeting with Zelensky on April 28.

A team member with the International Atomic Energy Agency arrives at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on April 26. Russian forces withdrew from Chernobyl, the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster, in March.

Maria, 13, holds a photograph of her father, Yurii Alekseev, as she and her godfather, Igor Tarkovskii, attend Alekseev's funeral in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 26. Alekseev, 50, was a territorial defense member who was killed by Russian soldiers, according to his family.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin attend a meeting in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 24.

A couple looks at a memorial wall in Lviv on April 24. The wall shows Ukrainian civilians who have been killed during the Russian invasion.

People pray during an Easter church service at St. Michael's Cathedral in Kyiv on April 24.

Women walk between sandbags and anti-tank barricades in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, to attend a blessing of traditional Easter food baskets on April 23.

Members of the Ukrainian Red Cross talk before moving an elderly woman to an ambulance in a bunker under a factory in Severodonetsk, Ukraine, on April 22.

A woman who recently evacuated Mariupol cries after arriving at a registration center for internally displaced people in Zaporizhzhia on April 21.

Emergency workers remove the body of a person killed during the Russian attack on Mariupol.

Vova, 10, looks at the body of his mother, Maryna, lying in a coffin as his father, Ivan, prays during her funeral in Bucha on April 20. She died during Russia's occupation of the city, as the family sheltered in a cold basement for more than a month.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, right, speaks with European Council President Charles Michel during a meeting in Kyiv on April 20.

A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a multiple rocket-launch system in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine on April 20.

Firefighters work in Lviv after a civilian building was hit by a Russian missile on April 18.

Smoke rises above Mariupol on April 18.

Women clean inside a damaged building at the Vizar company military-industrial complex in Vyshneve, Ukraine, on April 15. The site, on the outskirts of Kyiv, was hit by Russian strikes.

Firefighters work at a burning building in Kharkiv following a missile attack near the Kharkiv International Airport on April 12.

Mourners react in Stebnyk, Ukraine, during the funeral ceremony of Ukrainian serviceman Roman Tiaka. Tiaka was 47.

Ukrainian forces fire rockets toward Russian positions in Ukraine's Donbas region on April 10.

A man works to catalog some of the bodies of civilians who were killed in and around Bucha. Shocking images showing the bodies of civilians scattered across the suburb of Kyiv sparked international outrage and raised the urgency of ongoing investigations into alleged Russian war crimes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Russian leaders to be held accountable for the actions of the nation's military. The Russian Ministry of Defense, without evidence, claimed the extensive footage of Bucha was "fake."

Search-and-rescue teams remove debris after the Ukrainian army regained control of Borodianka, Ukraine, on April 6.

People wait to board a train as they flee Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on April 5.

Destruction is seen in Borodianka on April 5. Borodianka was home to 13,000 people before the war, but most fled after Russia's invasion. What was left of the town, after intense shelling and devastating airstrikes, was then occupied by Russian forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media about the alleged atrocities in Bucha on April 4. "It's very difficult to negotiate when you see what (the Russians) have done here," Zelensky emphasized as he stood in the town, surrounded by security.

Anna Zhelisko touches the casket of her grandson, Ukrainian soldier Dmitry Zhelisko, as it arrives for his funeral in Chervonohrad, Ukraine, on April 3. He died fighting the Russian army near Kharkiv.

Smoke rises over Odesa, Ukraine, on April 3. The Russian defense ministry confirmed a strike on an oil refinery and fuel storage facilities in the port city.

Bodies lie on a street in Bucha on April 2. Images captured by Agence France-Presse showed at least 20 civilian men dead.

A Ukrainian serviceman stands with a handcuffed Russian soldier in Kharkiv on March 31.

A satellite image shows a shelled warehouse that was being used by the Red Cross in Mariupol on March 29.

Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in Istanbul for talks on March 29. Russia said it would "drastically reduce" its military assault on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv. The announcement came after Ukrainian and Western intelligence assessments recently suggested that Russia's advance on Kyiv was stalling. The talks also covered other important issues, including the future of the eastern Donbas region, the fate of Crimea, a broad alliance of security guarantors and a potential meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

A woman named Julia cries next to her 6-year-old daughter, Veronika, while talking to the press in Brovary, Ukraine, on March 29.

The regional government headquarters of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, is damaged following a Russian attack on March 29. At least nine people were killed, according to the Mykolaiv regional media office's Telegram channel.

An armored convoy of pro-Russian troops travel on a road leading to Mariupol on March 28.

A volunteer weaves a bulletproof vest in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on March 28.

A woman lights a candle during the Sunday service at a monastery in Odesa on March 27.

A Ukrainian serviceman stands in a heavily damaged building in Stoyanka, Ukraine, on March 27.

Orphaned children travel by train after fleeing the Russian-controlled town of Polohy, Ukraine, on March 26.

A man recovers items from a burning shop following a Russian attack in Kharkiv on March 25.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses world leaders via video at the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, on March 24. Zelensky stopped short of issuing his usual request for a no-fly zone, but he did say Ukraine needs fighter jets, tanks and better air defenses.

A child holds a Ukrainian flag in front of the Taras Shevchenko monument as members of the Ukrainian National Guard band perform in Lviv on March 24.

A firefighter sprays water inside a house that was destroyed by shelling in Kyiv on March 23.

Svetlana Ilyuhina looks at the wreckage of her home in Kyiv following a Russian rocket attack on March 23. "First there was smoke, and then everything went black," she said.

Pictures lie amid the rubble of a house in Kyiv on March 23.

A woman cleans up a room March 21 in a building that was damaged by bombing in Kyiv.

The Retroville shopping mall is seen in Kyiv after Russian shelling on March 21.

People share dinner and sing "Happy Birthday" during a celebration in Kyiv on March 20. This studio space has turned into a bomb shelter for approximately 25 artists who are volunteering to help the war effort.

Former Ukrainian Parliament member Tetiana Chornovol, now a service member and operator of an anti-tank guided missile system, examines a Russian tank she destroyed in a recent battle in the Kyiv region.

A Ukrainian serviceman stands among debris after shelling in a residential area in Kyiv on March 18.

US President Joe Biden holds a virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in this photo that was released by the White House on March 18. Biden sought to use the 110-minute call to dissuade Xi from assisting Russia in its war on Ukraine.

Staff members attend to a child at a children's hospital in Zaporizhzhia on March 18.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a rally at a stadium in Moscow on March 18. Speaking from a stage in front of a banner that read "for a world without Nazism," Putin said Russia "will definitely implement all our plans" in Ukraine. He insisted that national unity was the strongest in a long time, even as many people flee Russia or protest against war in the streets. State workers were told by authorities to attend the celebration, which commemorated the eighth year of Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky receives a standing ovation as he virtually addresses the US Congress on March 16. The historic speech occurred as the United States is under pressure to provide more military assistance to the embattled country.

An elderly woman is helped by police officers after she was rescued from an apartment that was hit by shelling in Kyiv on March 15.

Firefighters work to extinguish flames at an apartment building in Kyiv on March 15.

Military cadets attend a funeral ceremony at a church in Lviv on March 15. The funeral was for four of the Ukrainian servicemen who were killed during an airstrike on the Yavoriv military base near the Polish border. Local authorities say 35 people were killed.

A woman walks past a damaged window to lay flowers at a makeshift memorial for victims in Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 15.

Ukrainian soldiers take cover from incoming artillery fire in Irpin, Ukraine, on March 13.

A Ukrainian soldier surveys a destroyed government building in Kharkiv on March 13.

A mother and son rest in Lviv, Ukraine, while waiting to board a train to Poland on March 12.

An explosion is seen at an apartment building in Mariupol on March 11. The city in southeastern Ukraine has been besieged by Russian forces.

Mariana Vishegirskaya's husband, Yuri, holds their newborn daughter, Veronika, at a hospital in Mariupol on March 11. Vishegirskaya survived the maternity hospital bombing in the city earlier in the week.

People pay their respects during a funeral service for three Ukrainian soldiers in Lviv on March 11. Senior Soldier Andrii Stefanyshyn, 39; Senior Lt. Taras Didukh, 25; and Sgt. Dmytro Kabakov, 58, were laid to rest at the Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church. Even in this sacred space, the sounds of war intruded: an air raid siren audible under the sound of prayer and weeping. Yet no one stirred. Residents are now inured to the near-daily warnings of an air attack.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gives a news conference after meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Antalya, Turkey, on March 10. Two weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Lavrov falsely claimed that his country "did not attack" its neighbor.

A resident takes shelter in a basement in Irpin on March 10. Due to heavy fighting, Irpin has been without heat, water or electricity for several days.

Emergency workers carry an injured pregnant woman outside of a bombed maternity hospital in Mariupol on March 9. The woman and her baby later died, a surgeon who was treating her confirmed. The attack came despite Russia agreeing to a 12-hour pause in hostilities to allow refugees to evacuate.

Dead bodies are placed into a mass grave on the outskirts of Mariupol on March 9. With overflowing morgues and repeated shelling, the city has been unable to hold proper burials.

Cars drive past a destroyed Russian tank as civilians leave Irpin on March 9. A Ukrainian official said lines of vehicles stretched for miles as people tried to escape fighting in districts to the north and northwest of Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is displayed on a screen as he addresses British lawmakers via video on March 8. "We will not give up and we will not lose. We will fight until the end at sea, in the air. We will continue fighting for our land, whatever the cost," he said in his comments translated by an interpreter. The House of Commons gave Zelensky a standing ovation at the end of his address.

A firefighter works to extinguish flames after a chemical warehouse was reportedly hit by Russian shelling near Kalynivka, Ukraine, on March 8.

Members of the Red Cross help people fleeing the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 7.

The dead bodies of civilians killed while trying to flee are covered by sheets in Irpin on March 6. CNN determined they were killed in a Russian military strike.

Civilians seek protection in a basement bomb shelter in Kyiv on March 6.

Local residents help clear the rubble of a home that was destroyed by a suspected Russian airstrike in Markhalivka, Ukraine, on March 5.

George Keburia says goodbye to his wife and children as they board a train in Odesa on March 5. They were heading to Lviv.

Ukrainian officials say several people were injured in a Russian missile attack on Kyiv on Thursday, April 28, which occurred as the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres was finishing a visit to the Ukrainian capital.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomes UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres before their meeting, in Kyiv, on April 28.

A statue is covered in Lviv on March 5. Residents wrapped statues in protective sheets to try to safeguard historic monuments across the city.

Ukrainians crowd under a destroyed bridge as they try to flee across the Irpin River on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 5.

Marina Yatsko runs behind her boyfriend, Fedor, as they arrive at the hospital with her 18-month-old son, Kirill, who was wounded by shelling in Mariupol on March 4. Medical workers frantically tried to save the boy's life, but he didn't survive.

People remove personal belongings from a burning house after shelling in Irpin on March 4.

Oksana and her son Dmytro stand over the open casket of her husband, Volodymyr Nezhenets, during his funeral in Kyiv on March 4. According to the Washington Post, he was a member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, which is comprised mostly of volunteers.

People crowd on a platform as they try to board a westbound train in Kyiv on March 4.

A bullet-ridden bus is seen after an ambush in Kyiv on March 4.

People take shelter on the floor of a hospital during shelling in Mariupol on March 4.

A member of the Ukrainian military gives instructions to civilians in Irpin on March 4. They were about to board an evacuation train headed to Kyiv.

Surveillance camera footage shows a flare landing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, Ukraine, during shelling on March 4. Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces have "occupied" the power plant.

A Ukrainian child rests on a bed at a temporary refugee center in Záhony, Hungary, on March 4.

A residential building destroyed by shelling is seen in Borodyanka, Ukraine, on March 3. Russian forces have shown a "willingness to hit civilian infrastructure on purpose," a senior US defense official told reporters.

Leos Leonid recovers at a hospital in Kyiv on March 3. The 64-year-old survived being crushed when an armored vehicle drove over his car. Video of the incident was widely shared on social media.

A Ukrainian soldier carries a baby across a destroyed bridge on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 3.

Residents react in front of a burning building after shelling in Kharkiv on March 3.

A Ukrainian soldier who says he was shot three times in the opening days of the invasion sits on a hospital bed in Kyiv on March 3.

People form a human chain to transfer supplies into Kyiv on March 3.

A cemetery worker digs graves for Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv on March 3.

A mother cares for her two infant sons in the underground shelter of a maternity hospital in Kyiv on March 3. She gave birth a day earlier, and she and her husband haven't yet decided on names for the twins.

A member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces sits with a weapon in Kyiv on March 2.

Paramedics treat an elderly woman wounded by shelling before transferring her to a hospital in Mariupol on March 2.

Residents of Zhytomyr work in the remains of a residential building on March 2. The building was destroyed by shelling.

A woman reads a story to children while they take shelter in a subway station in Kyiv on March 2.

A member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces inspects damage in the backyard of a house in Gorenka on March 2.

A Ukrainian woman takes her children over the border in Siret, Romania, on March 2. Many Ukrainians are fleeing the country at a pace that could turn into "Europe's largest refugee crisis this century," the United Nations Refugee Agency said.

Militia members set up anti-tank barricades in Kyiv on March 2.

People wait at a train station in Kyiv on March 2.

People shelter in a subway station in Kyiv on March 2.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky poses for a picture in a Kyiv bunker after an exclusive interview with CNN and Reuters on March 1. Zelensky said that as long as Moscow's attacks on Ukrainian cities continued, little progress could be made in talks between the two nations. "It's important to stop bombing people, and then we can move on and sit at the negotiation table," he said.

An explosion is seen at a TV tower in Kyiv on March 1. Russian forces fired rockets near the tower and struck a Holocaust memorial site in Kyiv hours after warning of "high-precision" strikes on other facilities linked to Ukrainian security agencies.

Ukrainian soldiers attend Mass at an Orthodox monastery in Kyiv on March 1.

Medical workers show a mother her newborn after she gave birth at a maternity hospital in Mariupol on March 1. The hospital is now also used as a medical ward and bomb shelter.

An administrative building is seen in Kharkiv after Russian shelling on March 1. Russian forces have scaled up their bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.

Ukrainian emergency workers carry a body of a victim following shelling that hit the City Hall building in Kharkiv on March 1.

A woman named Helen comforts her 8-year-old daughter, Polina, in the bomb shelter of a Kyiv children's hospital on March 1. The girl was at the hospital being treated for encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain.

Ukrainian refugees try to stay warm at the Medyka border crossing in Poland on March 1.

Volunteers in Kyiv sign up to join Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces on February 28.

A member of the Territorial Defense Forces loads rifle magazines in Kyiv on February 28.

Delegations from Russia and Ukraine hold talks in Belarus on February 28. Both sides discussed a potential "ceasefire and the end of combat actions on the territory of Ukraine," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhaylo Podolyak told reporters. Without going into detail, Podolyak said that both sides would return to their capitals for consultations over whether to implement a number of "decisions."

A displaced Ukrainian cradles her child at a temporary shelter set up inside a gymnasium in Beregsurány, Hungary, on February 28.

Ukrainian forces order a man to the ground on February 28 as they increased security measures amid Russian attacks in Kyiv.

The lifeless body of a 6-year-old girl, who according to the Associated Press was killed by Russian shelling in a residential area, lies on a medical cart at a hospital in Mariupol on February 27. The girl, whose name was not immediately known, was rushed to the hospital but could not be saved.

Smoke billows over the Ukrainian city of Vasylkiv, just outside Kyiv on February 27. A fire at an oil storage area was seen raging at the Vasylkiv Air Base.

People wait on a platform inside the railway station in Lviv on February 27. Thousands of people at Lviv's main train station attempted to board trains that would take them out of Ukraine.

A Russian armored vehicle burns after fighting in Kharkiv on February 27. Street fighting broke out as Russian troops entered Ukraine's second-largest city, and residents were urged to stay in shelters and not travel.

Local residents prepare Molotov cocktails in Uzhhorod, Ukraine, on February 27.

Cars line up on the road outside Mostyska, Ukraine, as people attempt to flee to Poland on February 27.

Ukrainian troops in Kyiv escort a prisoner February 27 who they suspected of being a Russian agent.

Ukrainian forces patrol mostly empty streets in Kyiv on February 27. Mayor Vitali Klitschko extended a citywide curfew.

Ukrainian service members take position at the Vasylkiv Air Base near Kyiv on February 27.

A woman sleeps on chairs February 27 in the underground parking lot of a Kyiv hotel that has been turned into a bomb shelter.

An apartment building in Kyiv is seen after it was damaged by shelling on February 26. The outer walls of several apartment units appeared to be blown out entirely, with the interiors blackened and debris hanging loose.

People in Kyiv take cover as an air-raid siren sounds February 26 near an apartment building that was damaged by shelling.

A police vehicle patrols the streets of Kyiv on February 26.

Following a national directive to help complicate the invading Russian Army's attempts to navigate, a road worker removes signs near Pisarivka, Ukraine, on February 26.

A man kneels in front of a Russian tank in Bakhmach, Ukraine, on February 26 as Ukrainian citizens attempted to stop the tank from moving forward. The dramatic scene was captured on video, and CNN confirmed its authenticity. The moment drew comparisons to the iconic "Tank Man" of Tiananmen Square.

People in Kyiv board a train heading to the west of the country on February 26. Kelly Clements, the United Nations Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees, told CNN that more than 120,000 people had left Ukraine while 850,000 were internally displaced.

Ukrainian service members look for and collect unexploded shells after fighting in Kyiv on February 26.

Smoke and flames are seen near Kyiv on February 26. Explosions were seen and heard in parts of the capital as Ukrainians battled to hold back advancing Russian troops.

The body of a Russian soldier lies next to a Russian vehicle outside Kharkiv on February 25.

Newly married couple Yaryna Arieva and Sviatoslav Fursin pose for photo in Kyiv on February 25 after they joined the Territorial Defense Forces.

Members of the Ukrainian National Guard take positions in central Kyiv on February 25.

People walk past a residential building in Kyiv that was hit in an alleged Russian airstrike on February 25.

The body of a school employee, who according to locals was killed in recent shelling, lies in the separatist-controlled town of Horlivka in Ukraine's Donetsk region on February 25.

Kyiv residents take shelter in an underground parking garage on February 25.

The body of a rocket remains in an apartment after shelling on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv on February 24.

A wounded woman stands outside a hospital after an attack on the eastern Ukrainian town of Chuhuiv, outside of Kharkiv, on February 24.

A boy plays with his tablet in a public basement used as a bomb shelter in Kyiv on February 24.

Sviatoslav Fursin, left, and Yaryna Arieva kneel during their wedding ceremony at the St. Michael's Cathedral in Kyiv on February 24. They had planned on getting married in May, but they rushed to tie the knot due to the attacks by Russian forces. "We maybe can die, and we just wanted to be together before all of that," Arieva said.

Ukrainian service members sit atop armored vehicles driving in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on February 24.

People in Kyiv try to board a bus to travel west toward Poland on February 24.

US President Joe Biden arrives in the East Room of the White House to address the Russian invasion on February 24. "Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences," Biden said, laying out a set of measures that will "impose severe cost on the Russian economy, both immediately and over time."

Smoke rises from a military airport in Chuhuiv on February 24. Airports were also hit in Boryspil, Kharkiv, Ozerne, Kulbakino, Kramatorsk and Chornobaivka.

People seek shelter inside a subway station in Kharkiv on February 24.

Russian military vehicles are seen at the Chernobyl power plant near Pripyat, Ukraine, on February 24. Russian forces seized control of the the plant, the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster.

People wait after boarding a bus to leave Kyiv on February 24.

Ukrainian President Zelensky holds an emergency meeting in Kyiv on February 24. In a video address, Zelensky announced that he was introducing martial law. He urged people to remain calm.

Police officers inspect the remains of a missile that landed in Kyiv on February 24.

A staff member of a Kyiv hotel talks on the phone on February 24.

Smoke rises from an air defense base after an apparent Russian strike in Mariupol on February 24. A CNN team in Mariupol reported hearing a barrage of artillery.

People wait in line to buy train tickets at the central station in Kyiv on February 24.

A long line of cars is seen exiting Kyiv on February 24. Heavy traffic appeared to be heading west, away from where explosions were heard early in the morning.

A photo provided by the Ukrainian President's office appears to show an explosion in Kyiv early on February 24.

People in Moscow watch a televised address by Russian President Vladimir Putin as he announces a military operation in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine on February 24. "Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history," he said.

An emergency meeting of the UN Security Council is held in New York to discuss the crisis on February 23. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop "attacking Ukraine" and to give peace a chance.

A convoy of Russian military vehicles is seen February 23 in the Rostov region of Russia, which runs along Ukraine's eastern border.

Ukrainian soldiers talk in a shelter at the front line near Svitlodarsk, Ukraine, on February 23.

Smoke rises from a damaged power plant in Shchastya that Ukrainian authorities say was hit by shelling on February 22.

A damaged house is worked on after shelling near the Ukrainian front-line city of Novoluhanske on February 22.

Mourners gather at a church in Kyiv on February 22 for the funeral of Ukrainian Army Capt. Anton Sydorov. The Ukrainian military said he was killed by a shrapnel wound on February 19 after several rounds of artillery fire were directed at Ukrainian positions near Myronivske.

A sign displays conversion rates at a currency exchange kiosk in Kyiv on February 22. Global markets tumbled the day after Putin ordered troops into parts of eastern Ukraine.

Russian howitzers are loaded onto train cars near Taganrog, Russia, on February 22.

People who left a separatist-held region in eastern Ukraine watch an address by Putin from their hotel room in Taganrog, Russia, on February 21. Putin blasted Kyiv's growing security ties with the West, and in lengthy remarks about the history of the USSR and the formation of the Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic, he appeared to cast doubt on Ukraine's right to self-determination.

Putin signs decrees recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic in a ceremony in Moscow on February 21. Earlier in the day, the heads of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian republics requested the Kremlin leader recognize their independence and sovereignty. Members of Putin's Security Council supported the initiative in a meeting earlier in the day.

Protesters demanding economic sanctions against Russia stand outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kyiv on February 21. Only a small number of protesters showed up to demonstrate.

Activists hold a performance in front of the Russian embassy in Kyiv on February 21 in support of prisoners who were arrested in Crimea. They say the red doors are a symbol of the doors that were kicked in to search and arrest Crimean Tatars, a Muslim ethnic minority.

Ukrainian servicemen shop in the front-line town of Avdiivka, Ukraine, on February 21.

People lay flowers at the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on February 21.

A couple arrives at the city council to get married in Odesa on February 20. As Ukrainian authorities reported further ceasefire violations and top Western officials warned about an impending conflict, life went on in other parts of the country.

Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskiy, left, visits soldiers at a front-line position in Novoluhanske on February 19. Minutes after he left, the position came under fire. No one was injured.

A woman rests in a car near a border checkpoint in Avilo-Uspenka, Russia, on February 19.

A Ukrainian service member walks by a building on February 19 that was hit by mortar fire in the front-line village of Krymske, Ukraine.

Fighter jets fly over Belarus during a joint military exercise the country held with Russia on February 19.

Ukrainian soldiers stand guard at a military command center in Novoluhanske on February 19.

People sit on a bus in Donetsk on February 18 after they were ordered to evacuate to Russia by pro-Russian separatists.

The remains of a military vehicle are seen in a parking lot outside a government building following an explosion in Donetsk on February 18. Ukrainian and US officials said the vehicle explosion was a staged attack designed to stoke tensions in eastern Ukraine.

A memorial service and candlelight vigil is held at the St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery in Kyiv on February 18. They honored those who died in 2014 while protesting against the government of President Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian leader who later fled the country.

A kindergarten that officials say was damaged by shelling is seen in Stanytsia Luhanska, Ukraine, on February 17. No lives were lost, but it was a stark reminder of the stakes for people living near the front lines that separate Ukrainian government forces from Russian-backed separatists.

Children play on old Soviet tanks in front of the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on February 16.

Ambassadors of European countries lay roses at the Wall of Remembrance in Kyiv on February 16. The wall contains the names and photographs of military members who have died since the conflict with Russian-backed separatists began in 2014.

US troops walk on the tarmac at the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in southeastern Poland on February 16. US paratroopers landed in Poland as part of a deployment of several thousand sent to bolster NATO's eastern flank in response to tensions with Russia.

A 200-meter-long Ukrainian flag is unfolded at the Olympic Stadium in Kyiv on February 16 to mark a "Day of Unity," an impromptu celebration declared by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Travelers wait in line to check in to their departing flights February 15 at the Boryspil International Airport outside Kyiv. US President Joe Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to leave the country, warning that "things could go crazy quickly" in the region.

A location of Oschadbank, a state-owned bank, is seen in Kyiv on February 15. The websites of Oschadbank and PrivatBank, the country's two largest banks, were hit by cyberattacks that day, as were the websites of Ukraine's defense ministry and army, according to Ukrainian government agencies.

A woman and child walk underneath a military monument in Senkivka, Ukraine, on February 14. It's on the outskirts of the Three Sisters border crossing between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.

Ukrainian service members talk at a front-line position in eastern Ukraine on February 14.

Members of Ukraine's National Guard look out a window as they ride a bus through the capital of Kyiv on February 14.

Satellite images taken on February 13 by Maxar Technologies revealed that dozens of helicopters had appeared at a previously vacant airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Pro-Russian separatists observe the movement of Ukrainian troops from trenches in Ukraine's Donbas area on February 11.

Ukrainian service members unpack Javelin anti-tank missiles that were delivered to Kyiv on February 10 as part of a US military support package for Ukraine.

Ukrainian service members walk on an armored fighting vehicle during a training exercise in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on February 10.

In pictures: Russia invades Ukraine

Prev Next

There is an element of PR to such costly displays of firepower: Russia is keen to export a version of the Kalibr and it has touted the Kinzhal as being able to elude missile-defense systems.

The UK defense ministry, for one, was dismissive of Russian claims about the Kinzhal’s combat debut, saying its use was “highly likely intended to detract from a lack of progress in Russia’s ground campaign. Deployment of Kinzhal is highly unlikely to materially affect the outcome of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine.”

Such assessments, however, give little solace to anyone on the receiving end of Russian firepower. Dozens were killed Friday in a missile strike on a barracks housing soldiers in Mykolaiv, and Russian long-distance strikes have struck areas far away from the front lines: At least 35 people were killed in strikes on March 13 against the Yavoriv military training ground in the Lviv region of western Ukraine, not far from the Polish border. More than 30 missiles fired from warplanes over the Black and Azov seas hit the base.

Still, Russia has thus far not captured any major Ukrainian city in the offensive: neither Kharkiv in the northeast, nor Odesa in the southwest. Even Sumy and Chernihiv in the north, both of which are just across the border from major military staging areas inside Russia, remain under Ukrainian control. And in Kherson, a medium-sized city in the south under Russian control, Russian forces have faced another protracted problem: Angry locals who gather daily in the central square to tell Russian troops go home. One of those rallies ended Monday with one man seriously injured after Russian troops used gunfire and apparent stun grenades to disperse the crowd.

Military analysts worry about another consequence of this emerging phase of the war: As Russian ground forces become bogged down and make little new progress, their leaders resort more to the indiscriminate and punitive use of firepower against Ukrainian cities.

A March 19 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War gave precisely that grim prognosis.

“If the war in Ukraine settles into a stalemate condition, Russian forces will continue to bomb and bombard Ukrainian cities, devastating them and killing civilians, even as Ukrainian forces impose losses on Russian attackers and conduct counter-attacks of their own,” the assessment read.

“The Russians could hope to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting under such circumstances by demonstrating Kyiv’s inability to expel Russian forces or stop their attacks even if the Russians are demonstrably unable to take Ukraine’s cities. Ukraine’s defeat of the initial Russian campaign may therefore set conditions for a devastating protraction of the conflict and a dangerous new period testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West.”

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.

Related article Belarusian military could 'soon' join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say

Adding to that gloomy forecast, Ukrainian officials have begun warning of a potential new front in the war, with the country’s General Staff saying Sunday the threat of an offensive from Belarus in the direction of northwestern Ukraine was “high,” without giving further specifics.

Ukraine’s northwestern Volyn region borders Belarus to the north and Poland, a NATO ally, to the west. It could – theoretically – serve as a gateway for attacking forces from the north to approach Lviv, a strategic city in western Ukraine that is a hub for both government logistics and relief efforts, as well as a transit point for many civilians looking to flee fighting in other parts of the country.

Russia has already used Belarusian territory as a launching pad for its invasion, with Russian forces staging an offensive push toward Kyiv and central Ukraine from southern Belarus.

It’s unclear if Belarus would actively join the war. But the Ukrainian General Staff is already warning that Russia is now looking to bring in reserve forces to the borders of Ukraine.

If true, that speaks volumes. It attests to the high cost the Russian military has already paid in terms of lives – even though the Kremlin has not disclosed casualty totals since March 2. And it speaks to the political will of one person – Russian President Vladimir Putin – to continue expending blood and treasure in Ukraine.