The very clear dangers of Donald Trump’s push to reopen schools

President Donald Trump has found a new focus in his attempt to turn around his tumbling political fortunes: Force schools to reopen this fall even as coronavirus continues to rage in several regions of the country.

“In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS,” tweeted Trump on Wednesday morning. “The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!”

He followed that up with this tweet: “I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools. While they want them open, they are asking schools to do very impractical things. I will be meeting with them!!!”

And those tweets come hard on Trump’s suggestion – in an event at the White House on Tuesday – that any governor not allowing schools to reopen in the fall was doing so for political reasons.

“We don’t want people to make political statements or do it for political reasons,” said Trump. “They think it’s going to be good for them politically, so they keep the schools closed. No way. So we’re very much going to put pressure on governors and everybody else to open the schools, to get them open.”

The “why” here is simple: Trump’s poll numbers – and chances at winning a second term this fall – have taken a huge hit as the country has turned on how the President and his administration have handled the ongoing pandemic. (Trump’s job approval was at just 38% in a new Gallup poll released earlier this week.) He desperately wants to kickstart the economy and needs people to feel as though they are returning to “normal,” and getting kids back to school is, he believes, one of the best ways to do just that.

The problem is that Trump is so focused on his political imperatives that he is losing sight of the bigger picture here: Forcing – or pressuring – schools to fully reopen will jeopardize the health of teachers and could well boomerang back on him from both a public health and political perspective.

What Trump has seized on is the fact that, based on all available data, young people tend not to get very sick from the coronavirus. “As you know, this is a disease that’s a horrible disease, but young people do extraordinarily well,” Trump said Tuesday.

Which is, broadly speaking, true! The numbers from the CDC – you know, that organization that Trump thinks is being too tough on setting guidelines for schools to reopen – make clear that for those under 24, there is very little danger of dying from Covid-19.

But like much of how Trump has treated the virus, he’s cherry-picking data points that work for him while ignoring others, which present a less-convenient reality.

And what Trump is ignoring here is the fact that schools weren’t closed this spring primarily to protect kids. It was to protect teachers, many of whom, given their age, are at a significantly higher risk of death. Given what we knew (and know) about asymptomatic transmission of the virus, the concern was that kids would infect the adults tasked with teaching them – and then those teachers would not only get sick themselves but also pass it along to others.

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That concern hasn’t changed. And it’s not entirely clear how Trump plans to mitigate that scenario amid his push to reopen schools. Asked Tuesday about it, Trump said this: “Well, we have a long time to think about the school stuff. Because, you know.”

Well that’s comforting!

What Trump is asking of teachers may well turn out to be what he asked of health care workers in the early stages of this pandemic. To go into clearly dangerous situations without the proper tools – mandatory mask wearing, fewer students per class, a staggered school week – to protect themselves.

That’s a daunting proposition. And, if a USA Today/Ipsos poll conducted in May is any indication, plenty of teachers will walk away from the profession rather than risk their health. That survey showed that 1 in 5 teachers said they would not return to the classroom if schools reopened in the fall, a number that could well cripple any attempts to reopen schools anyway.

The reality is that school opening decisions are made by governors and local officials, not the President of the United States. And, even if schools do reopen, it’s not at all clear that enough teachers will show up to make it feasible.

That Trump is willing to proceed with his damn-the-torpedos approach to school reopening in spite of the ongoing health concerns speaks to his priorities: Politics over people.

He needs normal back and reopening schools is a step toward that normal. So he’s going to push for schools to reopen. Whatever the consequences.